The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 8 December, 2025

Norway Expands Arctic Submarine Fleet

High North News reported on December 9 that Norway’s government will acquire two additional Type 212CD submarines from German shipbuilder Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, expanding its order from four to six vessels. The expansion will increase the submarine program’s budget by NOK 46 billion (approximately $4.5 billion), partly to finance a second production line at the German shipyard. The first vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2029. (High North News)

Take 1: Norway’s submarine expansion reflects the escalation in naval activity that has transformed Arctic security calculations. Norwegian Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik cited increased Russian force activity in the North Atlantic and Barents Sea as the key reason for the expansion, emphasizing that submarines are central to Norway’s defense. The timing immediately following last week’s historic joint defense agreement with the UK reveals Norway’s efforts to establish underwater surveillance and deterrence capabilities across the high north. Six submarines allow Norway to maintain a vast presence in multiple locations simultaneously, creating the capacity necessary for effective monitoring of Russian submarine movements from the Kola Peninsula. The Type 212CD’s stealth design makes these vessels particularly suited for covert Arctic operations. This expansion positions Norway as NATO’s primary underwater surveillance in the region, fulfilling what Sandvik described as Norway’s role as the alliance’s “eyes and ears in the north.” The willingness to commit €3.9 billion despite a weakening krone and economic pressures demonstrates Norway’s recognition that Arctic deterrence requires immediate investments and coordinated allied response. (Government of Norway, The Barents Observer)

Russian Shadow Tanker Blocked by Unexpected Arctic Conditions

The Barents Observer reported on December 9, 2025, that the gas carrier Buran, part of Russia’s shadow fleet transporting liquefied natural gas from Arctic LNG 2, remains stuck in the Gulf of Ob. The 293-meter tanker made four unsuccessful attempts between December 2-7 to reach the Utrenny terminal. Multiple nuclear-powered icebreakers were unable to assist the vessel through the ice. (The Barents Observer)

Take 2: This incident exposes the continued unpredictability of Arctic shipping despite substantial Russian investment in icebreaking infrastructure. Following an exceptionally warm October, the Gulf of Ob froze earlier and more extensively than in previous years, catching Russian operators off guard with harsher ice conditions than anticipated. The presence of multiple nuclear-powered icebreakers couldn’t overcome these unexpectedly severe conditions, demonstrating how quickly Arctic weather can shift and trap vessels. This vulnerability challenges narratives about the Northern Sea Route becoming a reliable commercial alternative to traditional shipping lanes as Russia’s massive icebreaker fleet cannot guarantee access to its own terminals. For Arctic shipping broadly, this demonstrates that climate change doesn’t produce linear improvements in navigability but rather creates volatile and unpredictable conditions. Before international operators can trust the Northern Sea Route as a viable shipping corridor, substantially more time and infrastructure investment will be necessary to address these fundamental reliability challenges. (Arctic Today, High North News)

US National Security Strategy Omits Arctic Section

High North News reported on December 8 that the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy omits a dedicated Arctic section, unlike the 2022 version which included an Arctic chapter. The new strategy reorganizes priorities around a hemispheric framework emphasizing critical supply chains and access to strategic locations within the Western hemisphere. (High North News)

Take 3: The absence of a dedicated Arctic section does not signal American withdrawal from the region but rather a strategic reframing of how the US approaches security in the north. The administration’s recent actions demonstrate sustained Arctic engagement – the finalized ICE Pact agreement to build 11 icebreakers, continued investments in polar capabilities, and the December US-Greenland Joint Committee meeting in Nuuk where governments pledged to strengthen ties for Arctic security. These concrete initiatives reveal that Arctic priorities remain active even without explicit mention in the National Security Strategy. This reorganization may actually strengthen US Arctic focus by embedding northern concerns within core strategic priorities rather than treating them as peripheral issues. The shift suggests American preference for bilateral partnerships with key Arctic allies over multilateral forums like the Arctic Council. The hemispheric framework approach treats the North American Arctic as integral to Western Hemisphere defense rather than a separate theater, potentially streamlining policy implementation by connecting Arctic security to broader continental defense strategies. (Government of Greenland, High North News, USNI News)

AMOC Weakening Threatens Arctic Communities

Arctic Today reported on December 9 that scientists from the Gulf of Maine Research Institute clarified public concerns about a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Observational records show the AMOC has weakened by approximately 15 percent since the mid-20th century, linked to Greenland ice melt and increased freshwater input. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded the AMOC will weaken gradually over the 21st century, but a collapse before 2100 is very unlikely. (Arctic Today)

Take 4: The AMOC weakening carries serious implications for Arctic communities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation functions as a massive conveyor belt transporting warm water northward and returning cold water south, playing a crucial role in regulating northern climates and marine ecosystems. The 15 percent decline since the mid-20th century demonstrates how Greenland ice melt directly affects global ocean circulation patterns, creating a feedback loop where Arctic warming weakens the very system that moderates northern climates. This gradual weakening will reshape Arctic ecosystems and economies even without the dramatic collapse headlines suggest. Communities dependent on predictable ocean conditions will be affected by altered nutrient distributions, shifting fish populations, and changing weather patterns. The emphasis on global emissions reductions to slow AMOC weakening highlights the need for Arctic communities to focus on adaptation strategies. Arctic governance must prioritize developing climate-resilient fisheries management and planning infrastructure for changing conditions, recognizing that Arctic communities experiencing disproportionate climate impacts deserve adequate resources to address the disruptive impacts they face. (Carbon Brief, IPCC, Nature) 

Canada Awards Arctic Military Satellite Contract

The Wall Street Journal reported on December 9 that Canada awarded a multibillion-dollar contract to MDA Space and Telesat to deploy military satellite communications in the Arctic. The project carries a price tag of over C$5 billion ($3.6 billion) and marks one of the first major military procurements under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Defense Minister David McGuinty stated the satellites will provide enhanced early-warning detection and support surveillance operations and search-and-rescue efforts. (Wall Street Journal)

Take 5: This satellite system addresses Canada’s urgent need to monitor Arctic territories as Russian and Chinese military activity intensifies in the region. The enhanced early-warning detection capabilities respond directly to Russia’s development of long-range cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons that current radar systems cannot adequately track. Canada’s vast Arctic territories create massive surveillance gaps that leave the country vulnerable to threats it cannot detect with existing infrastructure. The satellite network will provide continuous coverage across regions where ground-based systems are impossible to build or maintain, improving Canada’s ability to identify potential threats. This investment reflects recognition that Arctic deterrence depends on demonstrating the ability to detect and respond to intrusions. The satellites’ dual use for search-and-rescue operations shows how Arctic security infrastructure can serve multiple purposes to streamline the costs of operating in the region. This investment highlights how surveillance capabilities are adapting with new technological solutions to monitor in harsh Arctic territories that limit traditional military presence. (Government of Canada, SpaceNews)